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I don't think people realize just how many small businesses there are in america - just $10-100M in revs is 175k+, of which 5-10% change hands each year.
yes there are a lot of "brokers" / LMM banks - but they make up <20% of all closed deals in the space.
The rest are largely done DIY by business owners today (which has been very profitable for private equity)


4.8. klo 22.11
Very interesting discussion here around the future of investment banking and AI
Some thoughts
> Grok estimates that roughly 18,000 businesses in the U.S. generate $1-10M in profit
> Businesses of this size are typically valued at 3-5x EBITDA, on average, based on transaction data available
> With 18,000 businesses (midpoint) and using the average EBITDA multiple + transaction fee of 5% on the TEV, total whitespace market here is nearly $19B, conservatively
> As Offdeal ramps up, they will certainly start competing for larger deals but absolutely insane to me that a $19B market today has been left alone by existing banks. Essentially a land grab today
> It totally makes sense that a lot of investment banks won’t have integrated AI solutions. They will likely shop around for point solution vendors across the AI spectrum, and end up with a cluster of different tools
> Today, CRM at most banks don’t properly connect to the VDR. The excel models don’t connect up to a database of transactions. Transcripts from calls don’t integrate with DD trackers sent to buyers. I don’t see why traditional banks would get any better at this when AI comes into play
> For most investment banks, tech is essentially an after thought. The MDs (who make the decisions) are not the ones who use the technology (analysts and associates do). There is a massive mismatch between end user and decision maker. OffDeal is solving this problem directly by building a tech focused bank from ground up
Exciting times to live in
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