Recent economic reports have presented a challenge to the Trump administration's claims of a strong economy with controlled inflation. On Friday markets including crypto fell over 3%. Despite the administration's criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and its defense of tariffs, new data points to a definite slowdown. The job numbers may be a harbinger of something much worse: massive job losses due to artificial intelligence. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that a key measure of inflation—personal consumption expenditures, excluding food and energy—has risen for three consecutive months, now at an annual rate above 3%. This is higher than the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Additionally, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that job growth has been weaker than previously believed. These developments have intensified the debate surrounding tariffs. While tariffs are designed to raise prices on specific imports to boost domestic production, their broader economic impact is complex. Economists note that tariffs can potentially contribute to higher overall prices by influencing inflation expectations or by reducing the economy's productive capacity, a condition known as "stagflation" (fewer goods at higher prices). The administration has largely dismissed these concerns, arguing that predictions of tariff-induced inflation are incorrect. However, the recent data on rising prices and slower economic growth challenges this position. Critics of the tariffs argue that their long-term costs, such as reduced productivity, outweigh any short-term benefits.
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