August could be more cautious than July, imo. why because, yesterday FOMC did what everyone expected and held rates. but Powell’s tone was way more hawkish than the market wanted. He basically hinted rate cuts are nowhere close if inflation stays sticky. so right after the speech, rate cut odds for September slipped from 60% to 55%. Now people are actually betting we might not get any cuts in 2024 which is a big narrative shift from just a month ago when everyone was front-running two cuts this year because of that “solid majority” line from Powell in June. So, what’s that mean for August? - Expect more chop and less risk-on FOMO unless new data flips the script. - If inflation prints stay hot, this “no rate cut” theme is going to weigh heavy on every bounce. - If macro softens and rate cut odds climb again, we’ll see a relief rally but right now, feels like the market is bracing for a longer pause. In short, August could be the month where everyone realizes “rate cut summer” was just hopium. I’m staying cautious, booking some profits and not expecting the same easy upside we got in July month..